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Ukraine has been fighting against invading Russian forces for almost two years. The regime led by Volodymyr Zelensky demonstrated immense patience and determination in what everyone thought would be a short war and at the end of which Vladimir Putin would conquer Kiev under the cover of NATO’s expansionist exploits. But, Ukraine, supported by the US and European countries, launched a strong counterattack and the war has now entered a slow phase, with Russia gaining some territory and losing some territory every day.
But, things are expected to change soon as another conflict threatens to permanently alter the geopolitical order. The US and European nations, marked by their own domestic political considerations, are struggling to balance the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars at the same time as the civilian death toll in Gaza continues to rise. , the balance is changing.
Furthermore, a protracted war in Ukraine with no apparent end is forcing Western countries to ask how long they can continue to invest their taxpayers’ money in the region and even their Will also bring some concrete results for own security concerns.
“To be honest, the Russia-Ukraine war has created a weariness in the global community. The nature of this war in terms of its intensity, number of casualties etc. has reduced considerably since its beginning. The machinery and defense equipment required to carry out war on a long term basis is very difficult to obtain as there is a very high cost involved in supplying such materials on a sustained basis. Putin is a keen politician and so he would like to create the perception that Russia is more powerful than it actually is. Russia wants to prevent NATO’s resurgence which is almost a consequence of Russia’s own aggression,” said Dr. Martand Jha, doctoral fellow in Russian and Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.
America divided on aid to Ukraine
At the beginning of the Ukraine war, US President Joe Biden did not have to struggle much in helping the country as both Democrats and Republicans seemed united in weakening Russia. At the same time, he thought Russia would soon give in against tougher sanctions. It took some time for America to understand this situation as they again found themselves in the middle of a long war. Sure, his boots weren’t on the ground this time, but the country has given Ukraine more than $75 billion in aid.
Those in the administration viewed the Israel-Hamas war as a tragedy and questioned how long they wanted to continue supporting Ukraine. And as the US heads toward a presidential election next year, the divide is expected to grow. According to several polls, the narrative in the US is now shifting away from helping Ukraine and presidential candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy have promised to end US support if voted to power.
“Predicting the short-term prospects of a Russia-Ukraine war is complex. The issue of Ukraine and Hamas will continue to evolve as the priorities of the major powers change. At the moment, the US elections are at the forefront. Therefore, geopolitical dynamics may change rapidly, making it challenging to predict outcomes with certainty. I would say that the situation remains volatile, influenced by diplomatic efforts, military developments and international reactions. Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see whether Biden will be successful in getting the US Congress to pass a bill to aid Ukraine before the year-end holidays begin. Dr. Rishi Gupta, research fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute, said, overall, the situation in Ukraine and Israel will not change much, because in these elections most of the attention needs to be focused on America or Russia, they cannot tolerate instability. Can do.
Europe’s helplessness
European countries, due to their geographical proximity to Russia, appear to be more sympathetic towards the Ukraine issue, but they are somewhat helpless in the current geopolitical system. The region has done all it can to undermine Russia as it has reduced its energy imports from the country from 15.9% in Q2 2022 to 2.7% in Q2 2023.
Recently, the EU has also begun membership talks with Ukraine, but even if that happens (Hungary has objected to the move), the question will linger again if the US decides to withdraw from Ukraine. Or how long will Europe support Ukraine economically if Russia attempts to do so? Increase the intensity of the attacks in view of Vladimir Putin’s re-election bid next year.
Hungary, Russia’s close friend in the European Union, is doing everything possible to stop aid to Ukraine. Recently, the Viktor Orban-led regime blocked $54 billion of aid to Ukraine, saying “Night Shift Summary: Veto for additional funding to Ukraine.”
Since the geopolitical system remains unstable, nothing can be said about the future of the Russia-Ukraine war, but one thing is very clear – Ukraine will have to fight for its survival and probably the survival of many other small countries. More support is needed. Area.
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Published: 15 Dec 2023, 07:46 PM IST
