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Interest in independent candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the scion of a famous Democratic political dynasty, and possibly liberal West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, who is considering running, is the highest it has been in at least 20 years, according to Gallup. vote.
The appeal is strongest among key Democratic constituencies such as youth, union families and urban residents, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of registered voters in seven key states.
Overall, Biden 2020 voters are more attracted to third-party options, while more supporters of Donald Trump’s 2020 are standing with their man: 16% say they will vote for Kennedy or another independent candidate, while According to Swing, Trump has 11% supporters in 2020. -State survey, conducted from November 27 to December 6.
The question presented a scenario in which Biden and Trump are the major party nominees while Kennedy, Cornel West and the Green Party’s Jill Stein are also running for president, all of whom have announced bids.
The same poll showed that the Biden coalition’s openness to an alternative outside the two major political parties is even higher: 41% said they were very or somewhat likely to consider such a candidate next year, while Trump 35% of 2020 voters were.
“We have a threat to Joe Biden’s re-election bid,” said Sarah Longwell, an anti-Trump Republican political strategist who has been holding weekly focus groups with voters.
“Independent candidates can make huge losses on key, small differences,” Longwell said. “This is an election that is going to be decided by small margins.”
Including a candidate from the No Labels centrist group, an option that was not offered in the Bloomberg poll but is a possibility the organization is considering, would further hinder Biden’s re-election, he said.
“The people for whom a third party is going to be appealing are the moderate GOP voters, the right-leaning independents who have made up the margin for Joe Biden,” Longwell said.
Manchin, who defected from the Democratic Party and decided not to seek re-election to his Senate seat, is among No Labels. The group is laying the groundwork for a potential third-party campaign and Manchin is set to embark on a cross-country tour to listen to Americans’ concerns, an approach presidential candidates often seek.
Contesting an election without the endorsement of a major party presents serious obstacles for a candidate, including collecting enough signatures to get on the state ballot.
Nevertheless, independent campaigns may have influenced the outcomes of recent presidential elections.
In 2016, Green Party candidate Stein’s vote total was greater than Trump’s margin of victory in the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – three states that Democrat Hillary Clinton would have won the election if she had won.
In 2000, independent Ralph Nader’s vote in Florida and New Hampshire was larger than George W. Bush’s margin of victory in both states. Bush won that election only after the US Supreme Court’s decision, which ensured his victory in Florida.
Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who worked on Biden’s 2020 campaign, said there is no doubt that third-party campaigns could play a decisive role in helping Trump win next year. But he said support for third-party candidates is often overstated. And this is just a way for voters to express dissatisfaction.
“When it becomes clear that it’s a race between Trump and Biden,” Lake said, “that helps solidify a lot of the third-party votes back to Joe Biden. But they have to lay the groundwork, as He is.”
Young voters, who overwhelmingly supported Biden in the last election, have been particularly attracted to alternative candidates, with 51% of those under 35 and 47% of those 35 to 44 saying they like Are likely to consider. candidates this year, according to a Bloomberg swing-state poll. Union families, LGBTQ voters and urban residents — all groups with whom Biden did well in his last election — also express strong interest.
A plurality of swing-state Generation Z voters — those born in 1997 or later — say Biden is not doing enough to relieve the burden of student loan payments, even though he has pledged $127 billion in such initiatives. The debt has been wiped out, which has been widely thought. The aim is to lock in that key demographic.
Lake said those voters are particularly responsive to independent candidates, but are also fertile ground for a Biden campaign targeting winning them back.
“Young Americans are very Democratic in their policy preferences, but they are not necessarily so attached to the Democratic candidate,” he said.
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Published: 18 Dec 2023, 12:37 am IST
