Can inflation affect votes in state elections? – Gudstory

What are the retail inflation figures?

Retail inflation was the lowest in Chhattisgarh at 1.98% in September, while it was 3.67% in Madhya Pradesh. Among the five states, the highest growth was recorded in Rajasthan (6.53%) and Telangana (5.97%). Inflation data was not available for Mizoram. In comparison, overall Indian Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation declined for the second consecutive month to 5.02% in September. Softening in food and core categories helped bring down overall inflation during September. The base effect from September 2022, when consumer prices rose 7.4%, also helped reduce the inflation rate.

Why is inflation different in different states?

Price trends vary across states depending on consumption patterns, which are unique to each state. The items that make up the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have different weights. Inflation at the state level depends on various local factors such as demand, supply, state policies, infrastructure, consumption and income. Generally, states that have introduced higher subsidies may have lower inflation, while states with higher duties on petroleum products may see higher inflation, as the fuel makes up a larger portion of the index. The efficiency of a state’s public distribution system also affects prices, as states provide many commodities through their PDS system.

What is the reason for high inflation in Rajasthan and Telangana?

When food prices rise, states like Rajasthan and Telangana that are more dependent on agricultural revenues report higher inflation. States which have to buy agricultural produce like pulses from other states see higher inflation. Higher fuel duties cause inflation due to the cost of transportation. Rajasthan and Telangana impose higher duties on petroleum products than other states.

Can inflation affect state elections?

Yes. High prices of essential commodities play an important role. While inflation is a major factor, other factors such as caste, religion, anti-incumbency, personality of key leaders, ideology and wealth factors also influence voters. During the Karnataka election campaign earlier this year, the Indian National Congress (INC) had promised ‘guarantees’, which included free electricity, free rice and monthly assistance to women. Many experts believe that these guarantees helped the party form the government in the state.

What does history tell us?

Although inflation is not necessarily the only major factor, high onion prices significantly contributed to the Bharatiya Janata Party losing power in Delhi in 1998. In May this year, the Indian National Congress won the Karnataka elections and wrested power from the BJP at one point. When the rising prices of LPG cylinders were troubling the voters. To some extent, the impact of inflation on elections depends on how political parties unite on the issue in a particular state, said academic and political analyst Manisha Priyam.

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Updated: October 16, 2023, 10:22 PM IST