16 November 2023
The congressman conducted a survey among his voters and found what every other poll is finding: Americans want the killing in Gaza to stop.
What do Democratic voters think about the Democratic House members who defected from President Biden to support the Gaza ceasefire? Ask Texas Democrat Greg Kaiser who was one of the 18 members House calls for support to Biden administration Immediate de-escalation and ceasefire in Israel and Palestine. She is one of 24 House members who have signed a letter released yesterday, calling on the President and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to work for “an immediate cessation of hostilities to stop the bombing and provide much-needed relief.” Has been done For Palestinian citizens” and “[redouble] “Efforts for rapid de-escalation through ceasefire.”
“People want Democrats for health care, for education, for democracy. But they also want us to be on the side of peace and diplomacy,” says the first-term House member, who explains that, when he talks to people in his heavily Democratic Texas district, they say two things Are: They are horrified by the violence in Israel and Palestine – where about 1,200 Israelis were killed in a Hamas attack on October 7 and where more than 11,000 Palestinians were killed during Israeli bombing of Gaza – and they want the killings to stop.
Kaiser is not relying solely on anecdotal evidence to support his statement. He can point to polling data that shows overwhelming support for a ceasefire.
As the Austin Democrat prepared to file nomination as a candidate for re-election in 2024, she did what many members of Congress do in anticipation of a campaign. He conducted a survey. It turns out that Kaiser enjoys approval ratings that most current elected officials would celebrate — 53 percent of likely Democratic voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic district rated his job performance as excellent or good, while only 10 percent rated it not so good. Or not considered bad. When asked whether they would support Kaiser, who was identified in the questionnaire as “a progressive Democrat” or a more conservative primary candidate, 71 percent supported Kaiser, while only 17 percent supported the more conservative contender. Supported.
But Kaiser and his team decided to dig deeper. They asked their pollster, Lake Research Partners, a well-known firm that regularly polls for Democrats, to examine support for the truce – a stance often considered controversial, even controversial, by Democratic strategists and D.C. pundits. That is portrayed as politically dangerous. What they found confirmed what Kaiser had said on the street in Austin, San Antonio and other communities in his 35th Congressional District. Democrats overwhelmingly supported de-escalation. According to the survey of 400 Democrats in the district, conducted Nov. 7–12, 73 percent of likely Democratic primary voters are more likely to support a candidate who wants a ceasefire, with 46 percent saying they would strongly support such a candidate. will support. Candidate.
When voters were given specific information about Kaiser’s stance, the numbers increased. “Congressman Kaiser has called for a ceasefire in Gaza and the immediate release of Israeli hostages taken by the terrorist group Hamas,” the pollster informed potential primary voters. Congressman Kaiser has said that Israel’s security can be guaranteed without the killing of thousands of innocent Palestinians.
A memo prepared by the Lake Group reported, “After hearing that position, 80 percent of voters said they would be more likely to vote for Kaiser, including 65 percent who held that position strongly.” Are.” “Only 10 percent are less likely to support the Kaiser because of his stated stance on the armistice.”
In Travis County, which includes Austin, a historically liberal city that saw a large march in support of the cease-fire on Sunday, 79 percent said they would be more likely to support Kaiser because of his pro-ceasefire stance. In Bexar County, which includes part of San Antonio in the Kaiser district, the number was 78 percent. In the remainder of the district, which includes smaller communities and suburban areas between Austin and San Antonio, it was 85 percent.
“In short,” the memo states, “Democratic primary voters in the TX-35th Congressional District like and support Kaiser and are highly likely to vote for his re-election. And these voters support an armistice. and are more likely to support a candidate like Kaiser who calls for an armistice.
This is an important finding at a time when anti-armistice super PACs and dark money groups such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s United Democracy Project, Democratic Majority for Israel and the billionaire-backed Mainstream Democrat PAC have indicated they will not run in the 2024 Democratic primary. Will target ceasefire supporters in House.
The Democratic majority for Israel has already launched a six-figure campaign attacking U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib, a Michigan Democrat who is the only Palestinian American in the House; And U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan, a frequent critic of AIPAC, says he expects millions to be spent by various groups who want the Biden administration to continue supporting actions taken by right-wing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “What AIPAC doesn’t tell you is that they raise money from big Republican donors and spend it in Democratic primaries against Democrats,” Pocan says. “This is a cynical, undemocratic strategy.”
Will this work? Each member and each district is different, and there is not much polling to consider at this point. But polling shows overwhelming support for a ceasefire. A Reuters poll released on Wednesday found that 68 percent of those surveyed agreed with the statement, “Israel should call a ceasefire and try to negotiate.”
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The Michigan poll, again conducted by Lake Research Partners, which has polled for the Democratic National Committee and the Biden team for years, recently found that 71 percent of Democrats in Tlaib’s state support the ceasefire.
And, now, voting is taking place from the Kaiser district in Texas.
“People in the middle of Texas are more likely to support a Democrat who is talking about a cease-fire in Gaza, who is calling for the immediate release of Israeli hostages, and who is saying there is no end to the killing of innocent Palestinians. Without Israel’s security can be guaranteed,” says Kaiser. “This district is black, brown and white. It is urban and suburban. This is the working class. And that diverse coalition largely wants to see peace at home and abroad. This is what the opinion poll shows. “I think that’s where Democratic voters are.”